Halving day is almost upon us!Posted on November 23, 2012 by MineForemanBuilt into the design of bitcoin is a mechanism that rewards miners (like us) for solving blocks. Every block solved rewards the miner or pool 50BTC plus any transaction fees included in that block, it serves two functions;-[list=1][*]It encourages people to mine[*]It introduces new currency in a controlled manner.[/list]Bitcoin is built so that this reward is halved every 210,000 blocks solved. The idea is as bitcoin grows the transaction fee's become the main part of the reward and the introduction of new bitcoin's slows down to a trickle. This also means that there will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins in circulation.Well, in less than 4 days the block count will reach the first of these 210,000 block milestones and the reward for solving a Bitcoin block will half from 50BTC to 25BTC. (Have a look at bitcoinclock.com)The implications to this are huge and for the most part unknowable. There are two ways I can see it going;-
Mining is a delicate balance of difficulty vs electricity costs, the price of bitcoin depends on the electricity cost to generate those coins so if the cost to generate a bitcoin increases the price of a bitcoin rises to match.People stop mining bitcoin because the cost outweighs the return and the difficulty of generating a bitcoin (currently at 3368767) plummets until it is once again profitable to mine.
I believe that it will be a mix of both, I think the price will rise and the difficulty will drop but that is just me speculating. The truth is we are in for an interesting time, I don't even want to factor in the new bitcoin mining hardware (ASIC) that seem to be about to hit the market.
My new Bitcoin lifeJeffrey Tucker ÃƒÆ’Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â· February 22, 2013Last night after dinner, some people were having some drinks and I picked up the check for a guy and he paid me in Bitcoins. How is that possible? I downloaded an app for my smartphone that serves as my wallet. He scanned my square bar code and sent the money. It arrived an instant later.Today I bumped into a Bitcoin ATM machine. I could have held up my wallet and withdrawn the cash. Instead, I put cash in and added to my wallet. But then later I found some candy I wanted so I paid in Bitcoin. Later I'm thinking of buying some silver currency from Shire Silver. All this money changing hands, and all in a currency that didn't exist five years ago.Pretty mind blowing, isn't it? It is to me. Most people think of the dollar as money and nothing else. And yet in most times and places currencies have circulated in parallel with each other. So for dollars and Bitcoin to do so is nothing unusual. It is also instantly convertible into any other currency.What makes Bitcoin different is that it is entirely digital, its quantity in circulation strictly limited and its creation in response to demand until that point determined by miners who have to solve difficult math problems. It is built on top of existing currencies same as the Euro but has a free-floating value relative to them. It is already possible to buy many of life's daily needs with them, and the idea is spreading. It also happens to be anonymous and exist completely outside the nation state.Truly, no amount of reading on this subject is as convincing as actually owning and using bitcoins. That's when the lights come on. I've not even owned bitcoin for 24 hours and my mind can't stop racing about the potential here. It is actually a way for the people to take money back from the state. Remarkable.The Bitcoin ATM in the image to the right is on display at the Liberty Forum in New Hampshire where I spoke this morning. Of course it is far easier to live a Bitcoin life in this micro-world of radical young entrepreneurs who can easily grasp the dawning of this new world. But so it is with all economic goods. They start as crazy ideas. They are tried by the few. The many sneer and denounce the whole thing. Then one day, everyone is taking it for granted. How so will that be? Might not be long.
The Target Value For Bitcoin Is Not Some $50 or $100. It Is $100,000 to $1,000,000Bitcoin's value is at an all-time high again. Following the hype peak and crash in 2011, many seemed to have thought it was just another dotcom fluke. But bitcoin was much more than that, and it has returned with a vengeance - its market cap is now twice what it was in the 2011 peak, and it is nowhere near its potential, which is four orders of magnitude above today's value.In this, a lot of people are confused at the fact that bitcoin has climbed 200% since the start of this year alone, and wonder what to make of it. It is currently at $41.50 and climbing fast, and I see a lot of people just looking at the numbers and guessing from charts how things will pan out.I am seeing guesses of $50, $100, $150, even $1,000. These numbers seem pulled out of thin air from just looking at the charts - nobody seems to have done due diligence from the other direction, from the most fundamental observation of all:Bitcoin is a transactional currency. As such, it is competing for market share on the transactional currency market.Talking about bitcoin value is not about happily watching numbers go up and down while having popcorn. This is about identifying a global market, looking at its size and estimating a target market share based on the strengths and weaknesses of the competing product or service under analysis.When you know the size of the target market, and have an estimate for your projected market share, you can estimate the value of your product or service as a percentage of the value of the total market. I haven't seen anybody do that for bitcoin.The total size of the transactional currency market is hard to estimate, but has been pegged at about $60 trillion (the amount of money in circulation worldwide). Seeing how this number is roughly on par with the world's GDP, it is a reasonable enough number to be in the right ballpark. Based on my four earlier estimates (one, two, three, four), I think it is reasonable that bitcoin captures a 1% to 10% market share of this market.The low end of 1% would be if it captures international and internet trade. The 10% would be if bitcoin also manages to capture some brick-and-mortar retail trade, which we are already seeing strong signs that it might - operations provide a 3% to 5% extra profit margin on sales when you can cut out the credit card processors, so the incentive to switch is immense: those 3% to 5% cost savings translate to 50% to 100% increased profits, as margins are typically very slim in retail.Furthermore, some people will undoubtedly invest in bitcoin and keep their portion of bitcoin away from the transactional pool, like all people tend to hoard money if they are able. This decreases the amount of bitcoin that must fulfill the market share, further driving up value for each individual bitcoin. As a rough estimate, let's assume that only one in four bitcoins is actually used in transactions, and the rest are in some kind of savings or investment plans.This leads us to a target market cap of 600 billion to 6 trillion USD, to be fulfilled by about 6 million bitcoin, which makes for easy calculations. That means that each bitcoin would be worth $100,000 at the low market cap and $1,000,000 at the high market cap.In the light of this, present-day projections of $100 that present themselves as 'daring and optimistic' actually come across as rather shortsighted and almost dealing with peanuts.So is the projected market share realistic? Bitcoin certainly has hurdles to overcome - scalability and usability being two of them - but it has done remarkably well in maturing in the two years since I started looking at it. My prediction of a mainstream breakthrough around the year 2019 remains, and it still depends on getting mainstream usability; a target market cap may be reached about a decade after that happens, as a technology typically takes ten years from mainstream breakthrough to maturity.Now, there are definitely uncertainties in this projection and its assumptions - but it does indicate what kind of ballpark we are talking about.
clif's wujo...a series of audio discourses....E43 - March 25, 2013 - Bitcoin, coinbits, RMH, Bitcoins.mp3 download -> http://www.halfpasthuman.com/wujo/clifswujo3252013bitcoin.mp3torrent -> http://tracker.djsadhu.com/download_public.php?torrent=94